2019 House View: U.S. Property Market Outlook


Will McIntosh
Global Head of Research

John Kirk
Senior Director, Research

Mark Fitzgerald
Senior Director, Research

January 2019

We are pleased to present our 2019 House View. USAA Real Estate publishes its annual market outlook at the start of every year, highlighting our investment themes and strategies given current market conditions.

At the start of 2018, we were making the case as to why the next 12 months could be the most robust economic performance of the current cycle (primarily due to short-term effects of the Tax Cuts and Job Act), followed by slower growth over the next two years – eventually culminating into a recession. This outlook has proved reasonably accurate given the U.S. economy delivered one of its best Gross Domestic Product (GDP) outputs (approximately 3.0%) since before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% (the lowest in nearly 50 years), business and consumer confidence neared record highs, inflation broached the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target for the first time in six years, the Dollar finished atop the foreign-exchange market, and stocks soared to fresh all-time highs. Indeed, it was an excellent year for the overall U.S. economy by most economic measures.