2019 Mid-Year House View: U.S. Property Market Outlook


Will McIntosh
Global Head of Research

John Kirk
Senior Director, Research

Mark Fitzgerald
Senior Director, Research

Karen Martinus
Research Associate

August 2019

This publication is an addendum to our annual 2019 House View that was produced at the beginning of the year. This update highlights our outlook for the economy, capital markets, and commercial real estate (CRE) sector for the remainder of 2019.

Ten Years Removed from Global Financial Crisis

The summer of 2019 marked the tenth anniversary since the end of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), culminating in the longest US economic expansion on record; however, many market watchers are wondering how much longer this cycle can run. As highlighted below, the answer is complicated:

I. Monetary Policy: Pressured to Get It Right In July 2019, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced the first interest rate cut since the GFC era. Unlike 2008, many would argue that US economic conditions are relatively stable today. So, why did the Fed cut interest rates now?