2020 House View: U.S. Property Market Outlook

Contributors

Will McIntosh
Global Head of Research

John Kirk, CAIA, CCIM
Senior Director, Research

Mark Fitzgerald, CFA, CAIA
Executive Director, Research

Karen Martinus
Senior Associate, Research

 

March 2020

Market Insights

We are pleased to present our 2020 House View for the United States. This publication highlights our outlook for the economy, the capital markets, and commercial real estate (CRE) sector.

Executive Summary

  1. Despite near-term headwinds, the U.S. economy is forecast to deliver Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of around 1.8% in 2020.

  2. Even at the risk of being overly accommodative, the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered interest rates in response to the Coronavirus, consistent with their stated goal of extending the current cycle.

  3. The CRE sector continues to offer attractive relative value in an environment where government bond yields are near historic lows, and the stock market is deemed by many market participants to be overpriced and due for a correction.

  4. Capital available for deployment into real estate is near all-time highs as investors continue to target the sector, but pricing (particularly regarding core assets) may prove to be a challenge in the near term.

  5. Geopolitical tensions remain a critical downside risk to the economic outlook.

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