2020 House View: U.S. Property Market Outlook
Global Head of Research
John Kirk, CAIA, CCIM
Senior Director, Research
Mark Fitzgerald, CFA, CAIA
Executive Director, Research
Senior Associate, Research
We are pleased to present our 2020 House View for the United States. This publication highlights our outlook for the economy, the capital markets, and commercial real estate (CRE) sector.
Despite near-term headwinds, the U.S. economy is forecast to deliver Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of around 1.8% in 2020.
Even at the risk of being overly accommodative, the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered interest rates in response to the Coronavirus, consistent with their stated goal of extending the current cycle.
The CRE sector continues to offer attractive relative value in an environment where government bond yields are near historic lows, and the stock market is deemed by many market participants to be overpriced and due for a correction.
Capital available for deployment into real estate is near all-time highs as investors continue to target the sector, but pricing (particularly regarding core assets) may prove to be a challenge in the near term.
Geopolitical tensions remain a critical downside risk to the economic outlook.